AMSTAT reports strong preowned Heavy and Super-Mid Jet transaction activity, low but increasing inventories and continued month-over-month value increases, albeit at a slowing rate.
Tinton Falls, NJ – October 14, 2022: AMSTAT, the leading provider of business aircraft market, fleet, and operator information for 40 years, has released its latest business aircraft market update webinar in conjunction with Bloomberg Intelligence and General Aviation Services.
The webinar data showed that at the upper end of the market preowned transaction, activity remains robust with final transaction counts in the Heavy Jet segment for the first three quarters of 2022 likely to match the same period in 2021, and transactions in the Super-Mid segment exceeding the same period in 2021 by 4%. In these same segments, inventories are up year-to-date but remain way below their 10-year average. Robust demand and low availability continue to push values up with the Heavy Jet median value up 19% YTD and the Super-Mid median value up 31% year-to-date.
Transaction activity in the Medium and Light Jet segments remains ahead of historical norms but is lower for the first three quarters of 2022 than the same period in 2021 by 18%. However, for comparison, the transaction count for the Medium Jet segment is 30% ahead of the same period in 2019 and 33% ahead for the Light Jet segment. As with the larger jets, the inventory levels in these segments are up but remain well below their 10-year averages. Lower transaction activity seems to have slowed the increases in median values in Q3 with minimal changes in this metric in these segments since July.
The preowned Turboprops market seems to have slowed. Transaction counts for the first three quarters are 13% lower than last year and 4% below 2019 levels. Inventory levels are up for turboprops but with 3.3% of the fleet for sale, these levels remain below their 7.2% 10-year average. Values in this segment continue to go up but at a shallower rate than before.
Overall, the ratio of pre-market and on-market transactions is changing. Traditionally this ratio is around 60/40 but went up to 80/20 in 2021. The data suggests a settling back of this metric to traditional levels in 2022.
The report also noted that flight activity from charter and fractional programs has stabilized after reaching highs in 2021, suggesting that new users of these services have largely remained. By comparison, activity from Part 91 flight departments continues to grow and now exceed 2019 levels. The report also evidenced data on forward builds for avionics sales as further support for strong airframe OEM backlogs.
At a macro level, GDP expectations for major economies are moving lower with consensus indicating a soft recession at the end of 2022, and into the first quarter of 2023 with sub 1% growth expected for 2023. This will likely have a more pronounced impact on the owner flown Light Jet and Turboprop segments.
To watch a video of the webinar and to access a copy of the slides, click on the following link: https://tinyurl.com/bdh3kbh3
AMSTAT will be demonstrating its services at NBAA-BACE, October 18-20, 2022, Orlando, FL in Booth #4051.
About AMSTAT, Inc.
AMSTAT is the leading provider of market research information and services to the corporate aviation industry. Founded in 1982, and based in Tinton Falls, NJ, AMSTAT introduced the concept of providing researched information to corporate aviation professionals. AMSTAT’s mission is to provide timely, accurate, and objective market information to its customers. AMSTAT products and services provide aviation market and statistical information that generates revenue and delivers competitive advantage to brokers/dealers, finance companies, fractional providers, and suppliers of aircraft parts and services.